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November 15, 2013

Job growth will be slow but steady, says CIPD

Job growth will be slow but steady, says CIPD

The short-term jobs outlook is increasingly positive, but over the medium term employers are planning a measured approach to recruitment, according to research by the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD).

The CIPD/Success Factors Labour Market Outlook report shows that the proportion of employers that intend to increase total staffing levels compared to those that intend to decrease total staffing levels in the fourth quarter of 2013, has increased to +24 from +14 over the past three months.

However, the survey of more than 1,000 employers, conducted by YouGov, suggests that most do not expect to see substantial growth in employment over the medium term. Less than one in five employers (17%) said that they would increase their head count by more than 2% if the UK were to see stable economic growth of 2% or more. And 42% said they would leave staff levels unchanged.

In addition, the report finds that pay expectations have fallen marginally since the previous quarterly report. Excluding bonuses, the mean basic pay is predicted to increase by 1.6% over the next 12 months, down on the figure of 1.7% forecast last quarter. Excluding employers that are maintaining pay freezes, or expecting pay decreases, private sector employers expect to give an average increase of 2.8% to staff, which compares with 1.5% in the public sector and 1.5% in the voluntary sector.

Gerwyn Davies, CIPD labour market adviser, said: "With clear signs of further rises in demand for goods and services, it is unsurprising to see employers intend to take on even more people in the short term. However, our data on medium-term recruitment intentions suggest that stronger economic growth in the next few years will not be accompanied by big rises in employment. Many employers tell us they are focused on the need to raise productivity."

Meanwhile, a new survey conducted for VMA Group of more than 200 in-house recruiters has found the majority are confident that they will be able to source the talent they need through tools such as LinkedIn, Facebook and job boards – rather than using recruitment agencies. Key motivations behind keeping the recruitment function in-house were cost saving (52% of respondents) and control of the employer brand (46%). However, 77% said that they were likely to seek outside help in recruiting for more specialist, non-core roles.

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